Avocado Mid-Term Forecast – About to Embark on a Balancing Act?
Recently we had the opportunity to look at some fine work that was being done by the French Agricultural Organization CIRAD in the area of future Global Supply Prospects for Avocado. Knowing the expertise that this group has in this space, we were curious about the work being done, and the conclusions that it would reach. HAB believes it is fundamentally important to read this work and listen to the findings to collectively make the best decisions for the industry moving forward.
This new study asks:
“Has the avocado market lost one of the characteristics that made it so unique in the fruits and vegetables trade: being governed by demand? In any event, the massive surface area expansions in recent years are raising questions. Bearing in mind the economic and social challenges posed by this major fruit industry, FruiTrop has decided to initiate a prospective work, the objective of which is to analyse the evolution between supply and demand over the medium/long term (2021-2028). Also taking into account the intrinsically fraught nature of this type of exercise, we have opted to build this study based on field data (cultivation areas, production systems, yields), an approach which seems less haphazard than the purely statistical analyses presented in some works. The initial trends arising from this exploratory work indicate that the supply growth dynamic is now greater than the demand growth dynamic. This study is intended to be an initial step towards a more advanced and ideally collaborative model, built with the help of and for professionals from the avocado world.”
The study also reports:
“Demand dynamic still extraordinary, but on a narrow base”
“Nonetheless, we should emphasise that the world avocado trade still relies on a narrow base of just two big markets, namely the USA and EU27+UK, which take in 80 % of international trade, and were behind 80 % of the growth in imports over the past five years. To what extent will they continue to act as the driving force in the coming years, with no major relays for growth clearly apparent? The question has to be asked, especially since the rate of rise in consumption is inversely proportional to volumes taken in.”
“Periods of oversupply have started to appear, especially on a European market that is more open and much less active in promotional terms than its US counterpart. “
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